The Saudi Minister of Petroleum recently stated that long-term The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) may divest from fossil fuels and become a net-exporter of electricity due to its high solar potential. In terms of domestic oil and gas consumption, current trends indicate that a crossover point, where domestic consumption exceeds exports, may be reached by 2026 or sooner.

This research project helped develop a set of mid- to high-fidelity models of electricity networks in KSA to examine the following three questions: (1) What is the growth potential, geospatial distribution, penetration rate and robustness of renewable sources of energy (solar, wind, incl. solar desalination plants) in the future under realistic technological, financial and policy constraints? (2) For those isolated communities in KSA that have yet to be electrified, what is the best approach to provide reliable and sustainable electrical power? Specifically, what is the tradeoff between long-distance overland transmission lines versus building local micro-grids with and without storage in these communities? (3) Finally, what are the challenges and opportunities for connecting the Saudi grid to neighboring countries such as the GCC and Egypt, while creating a more dynamic national and regional market in the future?

The research methods and results developed for KSA were also applicable to other countries and regions such as in the U.S., Europe, Africa and India, among others.